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Commitment of Traders (C.O.T.) tips
Sat Oct25 (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - Chief Global Analyst - Changes for the week of Oct.15->21 were minimal across most futures contracts, reflective of traders apathy. Curiously, SP's had biggest change amongst all markets: jump in Commercial Shorts and covering of Small Spec Shorts - in the market that first dropped 974->865 and then recovered to 960. So again: no direct signal, but shift in sentiment - to where Small Specs became reluctant to press the Short side. Now, since the report ending Oct.21, SP slid 960->866; and we don't know the changes that might have occurred within those latest three sessions. My take: 1. Most related markets have reached obvious important milestones. E.g. SP held its lows (which = 50% retracement of the entire 1982->2007 Bull advance - in just one year!). EUR held important 2006 support 1.2500. AUD/JPY (a.k.a. the carry trade) halved its value in a year, and touched record 55.00 low. Copper (metal "with Ph.D in economics") is approaching 1.60, down from record 4.27 in May! 2. I see no indication of the reasons that caused all this - subsiding. Thus, I expect those milestones to be yet (albeit, briefly) penetrated. 3. My experience suggests to get ready for cathartic Monday - and subsequent reversal . . . (to read the remainder of this article, please log in below.)
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