Markets often turn in first week of the NEW year

Mon Dec29 (NY) - by Anatoly Veltman - Chief Global Analyst - Over a decade of pro checkers training, followed by two decades of value-hunting in markets taught me but one lesson: "Trojan horses" should ring alarm-bells! Just like when your checker opponent suddenly offers a sacrifice - one should be cautioned against too obvious a market bargain. I view the thoroughly obvious Bond Shorting bargain as one of the ominous signs that will keep me away from TimesSq for the Ball-Drop. The connection: see, a friend of mine canceled his long-planned Mumbai biz-trip - just because of what happened there the month before. People tend to be reactive; not pro-active... But with what Israel is currently doing, Hamas is all but paralyzed. What people are not thinking about: when you corner someone, it may become more complicated than meets the eye. Cynics will think that outgoing Administration, who is still in charge of counter-terrorism - will not be losing all of their sleep trying to prevent N-Y-E Al Qaeda episode. After all, something as terrible as that would put the outgoing's past policies in much more favorable historical retrospective... Market reaction would be spike up in foreign currencies and Treasuries, down in stocks and industrial commodities; precisely a continuation and possible extreme of recent trends! So, whether it happens or not - fresh positions against old trends will only tend to be placed post-New Year's . . . (to read the remainder of this article, please log in below.)