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NOB Spread Comes Back to Earth, EURO Comes Under Pressure

John Netto - President - Monday, January 5 - 8:30 PM Pacific Time - The first Monday of the New Year saw a late Christmas gift for dollar bulls as the EUR/USD came under pressure early and often. EUR/AUD (highlighted as a short trade in our 2009 Preview) took a 600 pip haircut. This coincided with a nice sell off in the long end of the curve as 30 year bond futures and 10 year note futures caught some heat as well. The equities had a pretty docile session as one of the things we chart at www.netblackcapital.com is 3-month realized volatility compared with 10 day realized volatility. As of today's close, 3 month realized volatility sits at about 65% and 10 day now sits at around 20%. This stark difference should regress over the course of this week as I anticipate seeing the range in the equity markets open up shortly... . . . (to read the remainder of this article, please log in below.)
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All Rights Reserved. Reproduction without permission prohibited. All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Jack Broz and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materiall due to many factors.